Mexico Wary as Trump Prepares USMCA 'Renegotiation' with Likely Ag Focus

International Trade attorney Andrew McAllister was interviewed for an Agri-Pulse article analyzing how President-Elect Donald Trump's plan to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada will affect the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). One of Trump's campaign messages was a pledge to impose tariffs of 25 percent on the two countries because of concerns they were not doing enough to control illegal immigration and drug trafficking. However, some have questioned whether these measures would be allowed under the agreement, which prohibits the imposition of tariffs except for "essential purposes" of national security. Mr. McAllister noted USMCA, negotiated during the first Trump Administration, was designed to address situations like these, speculating that the threat to impose tariffs could form part of a broader strategy to increase market access for U.S. agricultural products such as dairy and corn. He also commented that China will play a prominent role in the 2026 review, with the U.S. looking to curb Chinese investment in Mexico and prevent Chinese nationals from securing duty-free access to U.S. markets via these investments.

"The administration is going to be creatively looking for other mechanisms – other positions – to say, OK, well, this is why a particular product made in Mexico should not qualify for USMCA or should be subject to some kind of national security duty based on either raw inputs coming from China, the guts of the item coming from China," he explained.

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