What's on Deck in Tribal Nations' Prediction Markets Litigation

Sports Law attorney Samir Patel and Native American Law attorney James Meggesto co-authored a Law360 article breaking down a regulatory dispute pitting federal derivatives regulation against tribal gaming laws as a result of the expansion of sports-based prediction markets. In these markets, prediction platforms list event contracts tied to future outcomes, allowing users to trade contracts paying out based on sports event results. Exchanges argue these products are derivatives governed by the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), whereas Native American Tribes contend they are no different than traditional sports wagers and thus must comply with the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA) and state gambling laws. The authors explain that litigation will enter a decisive phase in 2026, when appellate courts will address whether federal commodities law allows companies to offer these sports-based event contracts without being subject to Tribal and state gaming regulations. The article summarizes the cases in question – disputes between Kalshi and New Jersey and Maryland authorities as well as three California Tribes – and outlines expected developments in 2026.

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