International Trade Developments to Watch for in 2026

International Trade attorneys Patrick Childress and Robert Friedman were quoted extensively in a Law360 article previewing the top international trade matters on the horizon for 2026. Chief among the must-watch items is the U.S. Supreme Court's decision on the legality of tariffs President Donald Trump imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). If the high court finds the IEEPA tariffs unlawful, the next step is the thorny issue of refunds for importers who paid the fees, a process that remains unclear. Mr. Childress cautioned, however, that the Trump Administration would likely turn toward other authorities, such as Section 301 or Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, to impose similar measures.

"I think the most likely response from the Trump Administration is going to be to double down and put in place tariffs of the same or a very similar rate based on different statutory authority," he predicted.

Mr. Friedman commented that overall, 2026 portends to be "the year of enforcement for customs and tariff-related matters," following the U.S. Department of Justice's (DOJ) formation of a cross-agency trade fraud task force and funding increase for Customs and Border Protection (CPB). He added that the flurry of tariffs – and subsequent modifications – made companies reassess supply chains and current procedures, which also contributes to an environment ripe for government action.

"Each of these efforts to kind of reevaluate that might lead to different business decisions, also opens the door for a potential enforcement action," he noted.

Beyond tariffs, the attorneys shared their perspective on the evolving U.S.-China relationship and upcoming United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review. Mr. Friedman highlighted positive developments such as the suspension of retaliatory measures between the U.S. and China, though businesses will still have to navigate the typical ups and downs of the sometimes-tempestuous relationship between the two global powers. Mr. Childress pointed out that China's influence will also play a major role in USMCA renegotiations, in particular concerns about transshipment, and the U.S. will likely push for more comprehensive reform while Mexico and Canada will look to preserve much of the current framework.

READ: International Trade Developments to Watch for in 2026 (Subscription required)