What the Midterms Could Mean for National Security Policy and Defense Spending
National security policy could see significant shifts following the midterm elections, with the results potentially affecting defense spending, congressional committee composition and oversight of the Pentagon. As Federal Government Affairs attorney Mike Wakefield relays, before the 120th Congress begins, lawmakers must work through a substantial lame-duck agenda that includes reaching agreement on the National Defense Authorization Act and determining funding levels for defense and other national security agencies. Looking further ahead, a change in House control could alter membership and staffing on key defense committees and bring greater scrutiny to Pentagon operations, contracting and spending transparency, while bipartisan collaboration on national defense legislation is expected to continue.
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Mike Wakefield: The upcoming midterms could have an outsized impact on America's national security policy landscape for the next two years, and many of those changes will become apparent even before the 120th Congress gavels in on January 3.
There is a lengthy national security to-do list for Congress during the post-election lame-duck session through December. First, the House and Senate need to agree to a compromise National Defense Authorization Act, which covers everything from military pay, acquisition reforms to industrial base policy matters. Simultaneously, appropriators are going to have to work to resolve funding levels for the Pentagon and other national security agencies prior to the expiration of the current continuing resolution deadline of December 11.
By far, the biggest issue to resolve for both the NDAA and appropriations is the topline spending level for the defense agencies, with congressional Democrats roundly rejecting the Trump Administration's $1.5 trillion defense budget for fiscal year 2027.
Looking ahead to next Congress, we can expect to see some significant changes to the Armed Services and Defense Appropriations subcommittees panels. Should the House flip to the Democrats, we would also expect to see a reallocation of both member seats and staff on the key defense committees in the House that will shape and negotiate annual defense legislation in the years ahead.
We can also expect closer oversight by Democrats on issues such as Pentagon operations in the Middle East and Latin America, defense contracting, as well as spending transparency by the Pentagon. House Democrats are even considering reviving an old Armed Services oversight subcommittee panel to focus on this additional scrutiny of the Trump Administration.
Elections notwithstanding, Congress has successfully passed the National Defense Authorization Act for 65 consecutive years, and we can expect this high-level, bipartisan collaboration on national defense to continue into the 120th Congress.