Reciprocal Tariff Update: State of Bilateral Negotiations
Highlights
- As the Aug. 1, 2025, end date for President Donald Trump's most recent suspension of country-specific reciprocal tariffs approaches, stakeholders should consider where ongoing bilateral negotiations stand, what the potential outcomes may be and how the shifting trade and tariff dynamics could impact their supply chains and businesses.
- Holland & Knight's Tariff Task Force continues to monitor the bilateral trade talks, and this alert provides an update on the status of the 18 ongoing negotiations as of July 29, 2025.
Update (July 29, 2025): As the date for reciprocal tariff increases approaches, there is significant activity toward new trade deals with additional countries. The chart below has been updated with the most recent public reporting on the 18 ongoing bilateral trade negotiations identified by Holland & Knight.
As the Aug. 1, 2025, end date for President Donald Trump's most recent suspension of country-specific reciprocal tariffs approaches, stakeholders should consider where ongoing bilateral negotiations stand, what the potential outcomes may be and how the shifting trade and tariff dynamics could impact their supply chains and businesses. As the date for reciprocal tariff increases approaches, there is significant activity toward new trade deals with additional countries. Holland & Knight's Tariff Task Force continues to monitor the bilateral trade talks, and this alert provides an update on the status of the 18 ongoing negotiations as of July 28, 2025.
Background: Global Reciprocal Tariffs
On April 2, 2025, President Trump announced "reciprocal" tariffs on imports of goods from every U.S. trading partner, throwing U.S. bilateral trade relations into a state of flux. The reciprocal tariffs, which were imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), set a 10 percent baseline tariff on all imports into the U.S. from nearly all countries and higher, country-specific reciprocal tariffs calculated based on bilateral trade deficits.
The Trump Administration announced a 90-day pause on nearly all of the country-specific reciprocal tariffs on April 9, 2025, reducing these tariffs to the 10 percent baseline while the U.S. and its trading partners negotiated new bilateral trade agreements. This pause was initially set to expire on July 9, 2025, but was extended to Aug. 1, 2025, providing additional time to finalize deals with key partners.
Beginning July 7, 2025, President Trump issued formal letters to more than 20 countries outlining the tariff rates that would take effect on Aug. 1, 2025, absent a bilateral agreement. Though most letters mirrored the rates initially announced on April 2, 2025, several countries received revised tariff levels. For example, Brazil received a 50 percent reciprocal tariff rate, citing not only trade barriers but also political concerns related to the treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Canada was assigned a 35 percent reciprocal rate, with its letter referencing long-standing agricultural trade issues and a lack of sufficient cross-border fentanyl enforcement.
Status of Bilateral Trade Negotiations
The U.S. Department of the Treasury, U.S. Department of Commerce and Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) have been tasked with leading specific bilateral trade negotiations, which, according to official statements and media reports, have progressed with several trading partners, although many details have not been released.
The chart below highlights the most recent public reporting on the 18 ongoing bilateral trade negotiations identified by Holland & Knight.
|
Country |
Status |
Date of Last Publicly Reported Update |
|
Canada |
Negotiations Ongoing: Per media reports, trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada remain active but are far from finalized and have reportedly been characterized as "chaotic" by Canadian officials. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has described the talks as entering an "intense phase" ahead of the Aug. 1, 2025, tariff deadline, warning that a fully tariff‑free agreement is unlikely, with the U.S. threatening a blanket 35 percent tariff on Canadian goods. |
July 29, 2025 |
|
India |
Negotiations Ongoing: Per media reports, prospects for a U.S.-India interim trade deal before the Aug. 1, 2025, deadline have dimmed significantly, with sources citing persistent disagreements over tariff reductions and market access. President Trump has also hinted that India may be subject to "secondary tariffs" in connection with its purchases of Russian oil. |
July 29, 2025 |
|
Pakistan |
Negotiations Ongoing: Per media reports, Pakistan's Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb plans to finalize a bilateral trade deal with the Trump Administration to avoid a potential tariff rate of 29 percent this week during his second trip to the U.S. in two weeks. It is unclear what the final tariff rate will be, but Pakistani officials have reportedly offered to import more U.S.-origin goods, including crude oil, and allow for more U.S. foreign investment in its mining sector. |
July 29, 2025 |
|
Taiwan |
Negotiations Ongoing: Per media reports, Taiwan is facing a potential tariff rate of 32 percent if no deal is made by Aug. 1, 2025. Taiwanese officials reportedly expect the U.S. to impose a 15 percent tariff on Taiwan (matching that of Japan), but there will be challenges in reaching a deal by the Aug. 1, 2025, deadline. A planned trip to the U.S. by Taiwan's president was abruptly cancelled, reportedly as U.S. officials sought to not derail sensitive negotiations with China. |
July 29, 2025 |
|
Cambodia |
Negotiations Ongoing: Per media reports, President Trump tied trade talks to regional stability, pausing negotiations during the border conflict with Cambodia and recently resuming them after a ceasefire was agreed upon with Thailand.. |
July 28, 2025 |
|
China |
Preliminary Agreement: Press reports indicate that a trade agreement was reached on June 26, 2025, which includes China easing restrictions on rare earth exports and the U.S. lifting certain export controls; however, specific details have yet to be announced. Significant issues, such as the U.S. trade deficit with China and allegations of unfair trade practices, remain unresolved. The agreement has not been formally signed, and both sides continue to meet and negotiate key terms amid growing skepticism over enforcement and long-term commitments. According to media reports, top U.S. and Chinese officials met in Stockholm on July 28, 2025, to reach an agreement before the Aug. 12, 2025, deadline, which marks the expiration of their temporary tariff truce.. |
July 28, 2025 |
|
European Union |
Preliminary Agreement: According to reports, President Trump announced a new U.S.-EU deal that imposes a 15 percent tariff on most European goods and exempting key sectors such as aircraft components and pharmaceuticals. Additionally, the EU has pledged to buy $750 billion in U.S. energy purchases and invest an additional $600 billion in the U.S. as part of the deal. The White House has released a fact sheet outlining key terms of the deal. |
July 28, 2025 |
|
South Korea |
Negotiations Ongoing: Per media reports, South Korea is making an "all out" effort to reach an in-principle trade deal with the U.S. before 25 percent tariffs take effect on Aug. 1, 2025. South Korea is preparing a detailed trade package that reportedly would include areas for mid- to long-term cooperation, including shipbuilding. |
July 28, 2025 |
|
Thailand |
Negotiations Ongoing: Per media reports, Thailand is still in active negotiations with the U.S. to avoid a 36 percent tariff set to take effect on Aug. 1, 2025, with no final agreement yet reached. Talks resumed, following a brief pause, after a regional ceasefire was agreed upon between Thailand and Cambodia. |
July 28, 2025 |
|
Brazil |
Potential Negotiations: Per media reports, Brazil has not yet entered formal trade talks with the U.S. regarding its threatened 50 percent tariff and has expressed the willingness to retaliate against any U.S.-imposed tariffs. However, both sides have expressed openness to negotiations. |
July 25, 2025 |
|
Malaysia |
Negotiations Ongoing: Per media reports, Malaysia is negotiating with the U.S. to reduce a 25 percent tariff on its exports, with the reported aim of having the tariff fall below 20 percent. Reports indicate that Trade Minister Tengku Zafrul Aziz previously stated the country won't cross "red lines" involving national sovereignty and pushed back on U.S. demands that Malaysia lift foreign shareholding limits for its power and financial sectors and reduce certain domestic subsidies. |
July 24, 2025 |
|
Japan |
Preliminary Agreement: The U.S. and Japan have announced a trade agreement that lowers the threatened 25 percent tariff on Japanese imports to 15 percent. Japan has also agreed to open its markets to additional agriculture and industrial goods and has committed to investing $550 billion in the U.S. The White House has released a fact sheet outlining key terms of the deal. |
July 23, 2025 |
|
Philippines |
Preliminary Agreement: Per press reports, the U.S. and Philippines have reached a preliminary trade agreement, with the U.S. imposing a 19 percent tariff on Filipino goods, and the Philippines is expected to eliminate tariffs on U.S. exports, with both sides pledging strong military support. The final terms of the agreement have not been officially confirmed by the Filipino government. |
July 22, 2025 |
|
Switzerland |
Negotiations Ongoing: Per media reports, Swiss officials have approved a draft of a framework trade deal with the U.S. and are continuing negotiations while waiting for President Trump to potentially sign off. The agreement reportedly includes provisions to avoid tariffs on Swiss pharmaceutical exports; however, uncertainty remains, and 31 percent tariffs remain on the table if the deal is not signed before Aug. 1, 2025. |
July 16, 2025 |
|
Indonesia |
Preliminary Agreement: An agreement was confirmed on July 15, 2025, with U.S. exports to Indonesia facing no tariffs, while Indonesian goods entering the U.S. will face a 19 percent tariff. The White House has released a fact sheet outlining key terms of the deal. |
July 15, 2025 |
|
Mexico |
Negotiations Ongoing: Per media reports, Mexico has pledged to continue negotiations with the U.S. after President Trump threatened to impose 30 percent tariffs starting on Aug. 1, 2025. |
July 13, 2025 |
|
Vietnam |
Unilateral Announcement: Per press reports, the U.S. announced a new trade deal with Vietnam on July 2, 2025, that includes a 20 percent tariff on most Vietnamese imports and full market access for U.S. goods but also includes 40 percent tariffs on "illegally transshipped" goods. The details of the transshipment provision remain unclear. Vietnamese officials have not confirmed the terms of this deal. |
July 10, 2025 |
|
United Kingdom |
Finalized: A trade deal was signed at the G7 summit and implemented on June 30, 2025, reducing tariffs on U.K. exports, including cars and aerospace products. The U.S. received increased market access for its exports to the U.K., particularly agricultural exports. The White House has released a fact sheet outlining key terms of the deal. |
June 16, 2025 |
Takeaways
- With only a few days until the Aug. 1, 2025, deadline, the U.S. has announced trade agreements with China, the EU, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam and the U.K. (although Vietnam has not confirmed this deal). There has been a dramatic surge in last-minute accords, and it remains to be seen whether any additional countries will secure similar deals before the deadline or if negotiations will stall, leaving others exposed to steep tariffs underway.
- The Aug. 1, 2025, deadline is the second time the Trump Administration has announced a delay on tariffs to allow additional time for negotiations. Holland & Knight will monitor whether this pattern continues or if the administration will implement the tariffs on Aug. 1, 2025, as planned.
- The unclear legal status of the reciprocal tariffs creates an additional layer of tariff uncertainty. Two recent federal court rulings struck down the reciprocal tariffs, holding that these measures exceed the president's authority under IEEPA. However, the tariffs remain in place for now as appellate courts hear appeals filed by the administration. Ultimately, the U.S. Supreme Court may decide the legality of the reciprocal tariffs.
- Separately, the Commerce Department is moving forward with an array of sector-specific Section 232 investigations. Many countries are eager to negotiate for relief from existing or future Section 232 tariffs during bilateral negotiations with the Trump Administration. It unclear what forms of relief the Trump Administration may offer in any deals with respect to Section 232 tariffs already in place (i.e., steel, aluminum and autos) or with investigations pending (semiconductors, solar panel components, light trucks, copper, pharmaceuticals and timber/lumber/derivatives).
- As Holland & Knight previously noted, given all these sources of uncertainty, stakeholders should prepare for market and supply chain volatility and strategize for a variety of potential outcomes.
Information contained in this alert is for the general education and knowledge of our readers. It is not designed to be, and should not be used as, the sole source of information when analyzing and resolving a legal problem, and it should not be substituted for legal advice, which relies on a specific factual analysis. Moreover, the laws of each jurisdiction are different and are constantly changing. This information is not intended to create, and receipt of it does not constitute, an attorney-client relationship. If you have specific questions regarding a particular fact situation, we urge you to consult the authors of this publication, your Holland & Knight representative or other competent legal counsel.