Midterm Elections 2026: What the Results Mean for Gaming Law and Policy

Election Day 2026 produced several outcomes with significant consequences for the gaming industry. Results in some races remain unofficial or uncalled as of this writing, and the analysis below is necessarily preliminary given the recency of the results. Holland & Knight will update this guidance as results are certified and 2027 legislative sessions take shape.

Texas and Georgia: Statewide Office Flips

Texas

Democrats won the governor (Gina Hinojosa), lieutenant governor (Vikki Goodwin) and attorney general (Nathan Johnson) races. Outgoing Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick was the principal barrier to legalized gaming expansion of gambling. Under Texas practice, the lieutenant governor controls which bills reach the Senate floor, and online sports betting – and, to a lesser extent, casino legislation – previously had sufficient support in the House of Representatives but never received a Senate vote. However, Republicans retain control of the Texas Senate, and most of the lieutenant governor's powers derive from Senate rules rather than the Texas Constitution. As a result, Senate Republicans may revise those rules to shift significant authority away from the lieutenant governor-elect, which could limit the lieutenant governor's influence over gaming legislation. Whether gaming bills receive a Senate floor vote may therefore depend on Senate leadership decisions in the coming session.

Lt. Gov.-Elect Goodwin has stated she favors "letting the people of Texas vote on whether or not to legalize gambling" and supported expansion of commercial casinos and online sports betting through voter referendum. Gov.-Elect Hinojosa, by contrast, voted against an expansion bill as a House member. Because legalization requires a constitutional amendment, the most likely path is a joint resolution placing the question before voters. Texas has a long legislative session once every other year. Thus, if a referendum is allowed, the timing for it to go on the ballot remains unclear.

Separately, Texas' membership-based card rooms remain a prominent issue. These card rooms rely on the Texas Penal Code's defense for gambling in a private place where no person receives an economic benefit other than personal winnings, and they charge membership and hourly seat fees rather than taking a rake. That model has prompted repeated enforcement actions and litigation. In March 2026, the Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission raided the state's largest card room and seized its assets; a Williamson County grand jury declined to indict, and the card room later reopened. In October 2026, Houston police raided a card room in Katy. In Dallas, the city's multiyear effort to revoke a card room's certificate of occupancy ended in September 2025 when the Supreme Court of Texas declined review, leaving intact a Fifth Court of Appeals ruling in the card room's favor.

Because no court has definitively resolved whether these fee-based card rooms qualify for the statutory defense, their legality turns on fact-specific questions such as true membership restrictions and how the house earns revenue. None of the newly elected officials has publicly stated their views on card rooms, but a new attorney general and lieutenant governor could shift both enforcement priorities and any legislative effort to clarify their status.

Verticals Most Affected: Online sports betting and destination casinos backed by commercial interests are the most likely beneficiaries. A companion daily fantasy sports regulatory bill, potentially modeled on Illinois' recently enacted framework, is plausible. (For more information regarding Illinois' recently enacted law, see Holland & Knight's previous alert, "Illinois Enacts First-Ever Fantasy Sports Regulatory Framework," June 16, 2026.)

Tribal nations, including Oklahoma-based Tribes with significant Texas customer bases, are expected to seek a voice in any framework. An immediate crackdown on sweepstakes or skill games is not expected, but consumer protection scrutiny is likely to increase and the incoming attorney general is expected to oppose prediction markets. Though legislation on sweepstakes or skill games is not immediately expected, Attorney General-Elect Johnson made consumer protection a hallmark of his campaign, so administrative scrutiny in those spaces is possible.

Georgia

Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms won the governor's race, campaigning on a constitutional amendment allowing voters to legalize casino gambling, with a portion of proceeds directed to education. She has not publicly specified casino numbers, locations, tax rates or regulatory structure. Democrats gained ground in both the state House and Senate, with majority in the House flipping to Democrats while the majority in the Senate remains with Republicans. From a prediction market standpoint, Democrat Tanya Miller's election as attorney general could prompt a renewed evaluation of Georgia's position on sports event contracts, whether by joining a multistate attorneys' general letter opposing them, signing on to amicus briefs supporting states in pending litigation or issuing cease-and-desist letters to operators offering such contracts in Georgia.

Verticals Most Affected: Commercial casinos and online sports wagering stand to benefit most directly. Discussions surrounding both issues will be key 2027 legislative questions.

Oklahoma and Minnesota: Tribal-State Relations and Compacts

Oklahoma

Gov.-Elect Mike Mazzei, Gov. Kevin Stitt's former secretary of budget, defeated Democrat Cyndi Munson, and Republicans swept the remaining statewide offices, including T.W. Shannon as lieutenant governor and Jon Echols as attorney general. Results are unofficial until state certification on November 10, 2026.

The more consequential change may be the departure of Gov. Stitt, whose relationship with Tribal nations was strained by compact litigation, a court-invalidated sports betting deal with four Tribes and proposals that would have infringed on Tribal exclusivity. Tribal leaders had indicated they would not advance gaming proposals until Gov. Stitt left office. Gov.-Elect Mazzei emphasized the need for stronger Tribal relationships during the campaign and publicly pledged "great collaborative work" with Tribal nations, though he has not taken a public position on sports betting.

Pending Matters to Watch:

• sports betting, which requires compact supplements and approval from the Bureau of Indian Affairs, following the 27-21 Senate defeat of House Bill 1047 – which would have authorized Tribal-exclusive retail and mobile sports betting through a compact supplement and which Gov. Stitt had pledged to veto because of that exclusivity – on April 22, 2026
• the Tribal dispute over prediction markets, including a Tribal prediction market-powered app that other Tribal gaming interests contend undermines the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA) and the compacts
• the state's sweepstakes casino ban under Senate Bill 1589, enacted over Gov. Stitt's veto and effective November 1, 2026, which extends liability to suppliers, payment processors, geolocation providers and affiliates

Minnesota

U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) defeated Minnesota Republican House Speaker Lisa Demuth, keeping the governor's office in Democratic hands following Gov. Tim Walz's decision not to seek a third term. Neither candidate made sports betting a campaign platform, and the 2026 legislative effort, Senate File 4139, did not pass. Minnesota has come close to legalizing Tribal-led online sports betting several times, most notably in 2022, when a House-passed bill stalled after a Senate committee added racetracks, and in 2024, when a bill fell short at the end of session despite a first-ever deal among Tribes, racetracks and charities. Repeated impasses between Tribes and the state's two racetracks, including disputes over track sportsbook licenses, historical horse racing (HHR) and related litigation, have been a persistent impediment. The Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) Party, Minnesota's Democratic affiliate, expanded its Senate majority from 34-33 to 39-28 and its House majority from 67-66 to 77-57, giving leaders more room to move a Tribal-led bill through committee and to the floor in 2027, although concerns within the DFL caucus about gambling harms helped stall earlier efforts.

Nebraska, Virginia and Indiana: Referendums and Expansion

Nebraska

Voters rejected both Initiative 440, a constitutional amendment legalizing mobile sports betting, and Initiative 441, its enabling statute, despite more than $20 million in supporter spending. Online sports betting is foreclosed in Nebraska for the near term, retail wagering at licensed racetrack casinos continues and the result is likely to be cited by opponents in other states as evidence of shifting public sentiment.

Virginia

Local referendums in Amherst County and Pulaski County that would have authorized HHR machines were voted down. HHR operators should expect continued locality-by-locality resistance, and the results may inform the ongoing debate in Richmond over iGaming and skill games.

Indiana

Voters in Allen, DeKalb and Steuben counties rejected referendums that would have allowed a new casino in northeast Indiana. Proposals to relocate or add casino licenses in that region are unlikely to advance in the near term.

Taken together, the results suggest growing national, bipartisan resistance to gaming expansion, with voters across a range of states and demographics showing limited appetite for expanding gaming options.

Prediction Markets: State Postures and Congressional Outlook

State Attorneys General

Thirty attorney general seats were on the ballot. Texas' incoming Democratic attorney general is expected to join the majority of attorneys general opposing sports event contracts, and the open question is whether Texas will litigate proactively or defensively. In Georgia, Democratic Attorney General-Elect Tanya Miller would likely be similarly skeptical. Oklahoma's incoming Republican attorney general will take office amid Tribal opposition to prediction markets. These developments add to an already active enforcement landscape, including Utah's felony charges against a prediction market operator and its co-founders, the New York attorney general's petition to compel compliance with an investigative subpoena, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit's denial of an operator's injunction request against New York and Connecticut and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit's November 4, 2026, denial of rehearing en banc, which opens a 90-day window for a U.S. Supreme Court petition.

U.S. Congress

Democrats have won control of both chambers of Congress. Operators should anticipate the following:

• oversight hearings and investigations of both operators and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) by committees with jurisdiction over commodities and financial services, including document requests directed at marketing, insider trading controls and election contracts
• renewed attention to bipartisan bills such as the Prediction Markets are Gambling Act introduced by Sens. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and John Curtis (R-Utah); nearly 30 prediction market bills have been introduced since 2025, and none has passed, so new legislation remains difficult even under unified Democratic control of Congress
• pressure to include an IGRA and Tribal-state compact savings clause and limits on CFTC-registered entities listing sports contracts, in market structure legislation such as the CLARITY Act, as urged by Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) and 11 Senate colleagues in July 2026

More broadly, expect the Democratic shift to bring increased scrutiny and enforcement of prediction markets and gray-market gaming products at both federal and state levels. (See Holland & Knight's previous alert, "Court Allows First Prediction Market Insider Trading Prosecution to Proceed," November 2, 2026.)

Lessons for 2028 and States to Watch

California

California Tribal gaming interests continue to prepare a 2028 tribally controlled sports betting initiative covering both retail and online wagering. A June 2026 request for information contemplates Tribal ownership of licenses, a 60 percent revenue share to Tribes, servers located on Indian lands and protection against iGaming. Democrat Xavier Becerra's election as governor may give Tribes a sympathetic ally given his history of siding with Tribes against card rooms as attorney general, although he has not stated a position on expansion. Recent polling shows 50 percent support for sports betting at Tribal casinos but only 37 percent support for online wagering, and Nebraska's result reinforces that online-first measures face headwinds.

Florida

Florida's 2021 Seminole compact, ratified in Florida Statute Section 285.710, treats mobile sports wagers as conducted on Tribal lands where the servers are located, and that hub-and-spoke model is the template California Tribes have cited. Any extension to iGaming would require compact amendment and federal approval. That requirement may prompt the parties to reopen the compact within the next two years to expand iGaming under the same hub-and-spoke model.

Other States to Watch in 2027

• Ohio: Democrat Gov.-Elect Amy Acton has expressed willingness to legalize iGaming with safeguards, a shift from Republican Gov. Mike DeWine's skepticism, and Ohio legislators plan to revive prediction market and election contract bills.
• Alabama and South Carolina: Republican Alabama Gov.-Elect Tommy Tuberville is not viewed as a roadblock to expansion, and Republican South Carolina Gov.-Elect Alan Wilson has said he favors online sports betting while opposing casinos.
• Wisconsin: Tribes have statutory authority for statewide digital wagering but must negotiate compacts with an incoming governor.
• Iowa and Nevada: Gubernatorial flips, Democrat Rob Sand in Iowa and Democrat Aaron Ford in Nevada, may shift regulatory priorities in established markets.

Other Gaming-Related Takeaways

• Sweepstakes enforcement continues to accelerate, with Oklahoma's ban in effect, Michigan's cease-and-desist letters to 32 offshore operators and Florida's litigation against sweepstakes operators.
• Major operators have expressed optimism that the results will produce new iGaming and online sports betting states, even as they report rising competitive and marketing pressure from prediction markets.
• Changes in who holds a state's governorship often portend changes in agency and commission leadership; be on the lookout for new commissioners and staff at gambling and lottery agencies across many states, especially those with a new political party in power.

Holland & Knight Can Help

Holland & Knight is closely monitoring certification of results, leadership transitions, the 2027 legislative calendar and congressional investigations and inquiries and will provide further guidance as these developments unfold. Please contact the authors or another member of Holland & Knight's Gaming Practice with any questions regarding how these results may affect your operations, compact relationships, expansion strategy or litigation posture.

Information contained in this alert is for the general education and knowledge of our readers. It is not designed to be, and should not be used as, the sole source of information when analyzing and resolving a legal problem, and it should not be substituted for legal advice, which relies on a specific factual analysis. Moreover, the laws of each jurisdiction are different and are constantly changing. This information is not intended to create, and receipt of it does not constitute, an attorney-client relationship. If you have specific questions regarding a particular fact situation, we urge you to consult the authors of this publication, your Holland & Knight representative or other competent legal counsel.